Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Email: s2p3t4@sympatico.ca
Nov 30 2009
1. “Stewart, we’ve got work to do. People with money want information, not you playing travel agent.” – The brain. Nov 29. 2009. I had mentioned maybe having some seminar/parties yesterday. After reading about Armstrong’s coming move to a higher security prison, suddenly the London England location sounds better…
2. The brain is on board now. He’s working on some classroom seminars by internet/phone for you, like “when to trade in size and when to stay small”. The brain is not only a master trader, he is also very well connected with immensely successful people. The brain calls me a visionary. People that are really good at something specific, generally feel embarrassed and tend to downplay their skills. I don’t like the term visionary. I prefer to say, “I have some ideas, let’s investigate them further –one toe in the water at a time-with a team of hardcore people who can execute in their specific area of expertise”.
3. One of you is a major gold bear. I’m nicknamed you the “Golden Economist”. You have an accounting background and love economic discussion (and battles). Your specific skills in terms of the operation of financial entities is also very high indeed. I personally think gold will rise and then everything will crash except gold (but gold could crash too worse than 1980 if it is not locked to the dollar with a gold ratio by the US treasury, something to keep in mind very firmly). Mr. Armstrong’s latest chart suggests the possibility of the golden bear’s scenario of massive deflation is very possible, but it may come later in terms of TIMING.
4. I’m probably the only writer to have an in-house gold BEAR. I like to focus on risk more than reward. I do that with charts, with the pgen, with trading, and I want a constant ear to the ground as to why I could be dead wrong, at all times. I want reality. Bottom line:
5. Your friend is your enemy. Your enemy is your friend. To quote the golden bear: Your enemies are those whose points of view you cannot see, understand, comprehend or are simply "averse to" because you lack their perspective…
6. Armstrong has some personal issues, as do many “respected” fund owners and biz people (who secretly go to shrinks regularly while lying about how happy they are to associates and even family). He likely wouldn’t have his current office in prison, if he had handled things a little differently. But the reality is that his analysis of the real estate market is close to that of top economists at Moody’s. I don’t trade based on Armstrong’s charts, but my suspicion is that the banksters have been able to apply Armstrong’s cycle work at a higher level than Armstrong himself could have envisioned.
7. Here’s where it gets interesting: Armstrong believes, based on his cycle analysis, that the real estate market will fall further into 2012, then rally to the year 2015, then fall for 20 years with almost no rally until 2033.
8. Basically, Armstrong is forecasting the total destruction of the real estate markets. The golden bear is focused on private debt as the reason for deflation. I have argued for years that the entire concept of securitizing real estate into an INVESTMENT was something that would end in the greatest bear market in world history. If you look at the bricks and mortar of a laptop computer, it seems impossible that such an engineering wonder is vastly cheaper than a bunch of boards, bricks, and drywall.
9. The point that unifies economists like the golden bear and the rest of us, is that debt must be PAID. Either by the borrower or by the lender, or by some combination of the two.
10. Bottom Line: IF the real estate markets are only beginning a multi decade total wipeout, likely fuelled by a thousand trillion dollars of OTCD write downs (you cannot fix a thousand trillion dollar problem by printing 10 or 20 trillion), my forecast of mass breadlines becomes a very highly probability.
11. Yet, the human being has pulled many rabbits out of the hat before. There is a huge debate in the gold community about global warming and fossil fuels. I have stated repeatedly that the issue is not about global warming, it is about POLLUTION and HEALTH ISSUES. Ask any doctor about the horrific effects of air pollution from burning fossil fuels. Globally, it is a cost and health catastrophe. There is also noise pollution. Gasoline engines are horse and buggies, like rotary phones. The Gman makes a pile of money with oil taxes, so he will be working his brain on how to do the same with electricity.
12. By turning houses into an investment, transportation into a huge expense, and devaluing paper money, the Gman has basically impoverished the average citizen. The saver is deemed a menace to the Gman. Instead of investing in US corporations, the average citizen has been killing themselves to carry a house, car, and energy bill with what should be surplus capital.
13. Yet some sort of new technology breakthrough could turn things around, either in the medical field, or with electric cars. Ironically, a car battery breakthrough would be deflationary, and the gman would be enraged as his oil tax ship was sunk. Against the backdrop of all of this action, is a possible set up to bring in a global central bank and world currency.
14. I posted the first instalment of the gdxj survey, your top ten juniors selected from the 20 largest holdings of the fund. Here is the last part of the survey, where you pick your top five juniors.
16. The brain is looking to lay a beating on the gold market. YOU cannot trade like the brain does, at least not yet. You do not have his information flow. Some of you have a brain that approaches his, a few have bigger ones. The brain is able to trade the market for a 10 second time frame or a 10 month time frame. That is how a professional trader operates. There are a myriad of opportunities in the gold market; the professional does not discriminate between them.
17. As regular investors, you have the pgen as your primary tool to deal with the price action created as the banksters fillet the public and the fundsters as a group.
18. The RSI is in nosebleed territory, so it only makes sense that the professional trader is going to on the HUNT for short side opportunities. One occurred on Thursday nite.
19. What separates what the brain does from what most of the top calling writers are doing is this: The brain is looking to hit the market hard and then get out equally fast, while the top callers are thinking because the RSI is high, it must fall much lower.
20. The scoreboard up to his point shows the top callers as: DEAD. And the brain doing what he does.
21. Where this translates into an OPPORTUNITY for us with our pgens is this: The brain noted to me last night: So if we take a hit at some point that means the pgens will go into buy mode as that happens, while I am short, correct…
22. If YOU try to short this market you will end up like the pretend-professional traders. The brain knows a number of the writers in gold community and knows their total personal failure trading gold.
23. I have similar experience. What some well-known writers are drawing with their charts is nothing but an accident waiting to happen in YOUR account.
24. We WANT a big hit on gold. We want MORE GOLD. We are PREPARED for it when it occurs.
25. Some of you may be thinking: Stewart, what is the brain doing now, is he short, long, what is happening…
26. The answer is: Who cares. I don’t try to play surgeon in a hospital after reading some alternative health magazines. All we can say as Pgen operators is that on the daily and weekly charts gold is extremely overbot. This is going to bring professional traders (with the banksters at the top of that list in terms of trading excellence) into the waters like a hundreds sharks on a shipwreck in the middle of the ocean. The first day, the sharks circle around. As you hold on to your leveraged gold log, you can be SURE people like the brain are coming to rip your legs off.
27. Yet gold could still rally HUNDREDS of dollars high in this condition. The SHARKS can HANDLE THAT. They can swim away. YOU CANT. Do NOT play gold top caller. You will BLOW UP.
28. Just stick to your pgen buys. That is one of the reasons I brought a real pro in here. To show you what you CANNOT do in the market, ever, as much as what you CAN do.
29. Some of you are military personal, retired. You know consult to major blue chip corporations. As the fund and bank come into being the traders will require military style discipline.
30. Let us all focus this week, not on…how can I become the brain…but on: Big Jims gold price magnets. Use any weakness, if it happens, to buy strongly. This is gold, not toilet paper.
31. Use any strength to lightly shave off profits.
See you on the site!
Cheers,
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates